Voltaire said “those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.”
The leader of the NTHE, who shall remain nameless here, has been called a lightning rod for climate science issues and he should be given credit for drawing some crazy attention to this issue fraught with red herrings, cherry picked data, and confirmation bias error. Many credit him with bringing much needed attention to the dire circumstances we now face. He has also highlighted a much faster than expected time frame. In fact, he is known for predicting that all life on the planet will end in the next decade. He is often quoted for saying "there won't be a human on the plant in 2026." While the climate problem is serious, there are many taking advantage of the gullibility of others to convince them that we are doomed and that taking any action is already futile.
According to climate scientist Michael Tobis PhD, this guy "believes that the probability of the end of human life within the next 10 years is so high that acting as if it is uncertain is delusional." Several people, including eminent scientists, have now bet that this just isn't so. It is serious, even an emergency, but there is a lot we can still attempt to do.
"Even if there is no hope, we have to do something. Not having hope is not an excuse for not doing anything. But the thing we need more than hope is action, because once there is action there is hope." - Greta Thunberg (video)
There is a retired professor of biology, that is mostly credited with this term who shall remain nameless, but you likely know the name already. He is best known for promoting the idea of near term human extinction or NTHE (video). This is a term he coined which has come to refer to the possibility of human extinction hinging on various uncertainties related to abrupt climate change. He himself is not a climate scientist, but he makes his current career by aggregating, analyzing and commentating on peer-reviewed literature emerging from this science today.
He has become a notable and controversial figure with some following, at least on social media. He is regularly accused of cherry picking data to paint a dire picture of the coming extinction of all life on the planet. According to this "guy", who has also been accused of a crusade against science, our fate as a species is sealed. It’s not a hard conclusion to come to considering that indisputable science has shown that 200 species a day are going extinct and many researchers are further discussing topics related to extinction domino effects. This is how this "guy" mixes fact with fiction. Even though the results, the time frames and the impacts are all unknowns that we might still modify, this "guy" proposes shocking near term time frames (which constantly change) as well as immediate and large scale catastrophic impacts.
This quickly becomes a cautionary tale. The fans and followers of This "guy" get completely swept into these nihilistic doomsday scenarios and become unwilling to objectively look at the potentials for mitigation. Many in the NTHE online community (video), largely initiated by this "guy", say we are living in the prequel to the Blade Runner film. This is an obscure reference to a 1982 film recently remade. This shows the NTHE tendency to prefer science fiction and end times fantasies over any discussion of constructive mitigation; which they call hopium. This group seems to work much like an end times cult, rife with apathy and inertia, awash in the glare of multimedia screens.
According to Michael Tobis PhD "it was just after I discovered the vigorous conversation on the Global Warming Fact of the Day Facebook group that this "guy" and his acolytes showed up, accusing anyone having any constructive ideas of peddling “hopium”. And I see him actually offering a guilt-free path toward political apathy to the people most profoundly affected by the ecological and environmental disruption around us."
"This "guy" is not the opposite of a denialist. He is a denialist, albeit of a different stripe. To watch him at work and to watch Tony Watts is to watch birds of a feather. Not evidence-based policy but policy-based evidence. Not part of the solution. Part of the problem" - Michael Tobis PhD
Many of this "guy's" followers simply do not question what they are hearing, even though it is always necessary to critically review what anyone claiming to be a scientist is presenting. It's very important to avoid jumping to conclusions based on convenient truths especially when it comes to these difficult and controversial issues. In addition, it is necessary to review opposing viewpoints such as discussions of how this "guy" gets it wrong.
RationalWiki says that "analysis of the data by knowledgeable science educators such as Scott K. Johnson and working scientists such as Michael Tobis shows that this "guy" wildly distorts climate science — especially developments about methane emissions from the Arctic — to support his conclusions. They also refute his claims related to runaway climate "feedbacks" as, variously, "not fast enough", not meeting the technical description of positive feedbacks, or actually constituting negative feedbacks."
It's Not Too Late
The unquestionable certainty of coming extinction combined with the diabolical cynicism touted by this guy and his adherents clearly leads to inaction, inertia, and defeatism. What's worse is that the group uses these mechanisms tactically, just like a cult, to suppress and condemn any action by others.
Despite this strong, certain and constant claim that it's too late to act by NTHE and it's leaders, it is extremely important to be aware that there are many credentialed climate scientists working on solving this problem and they are saying that it's not too late. They do recognize that the situation is dire and an emergency. But they do not advise quitting and going home.
According, to eminent climate scientist, Michael Mann “we can still prevent many of the worst impacts of climate change from playing out”. There's a lot each individual can do, but it is likely we only have a small window to act. Get started today.
What is the Paradox?
This "guy's" latest self-promoted theory is the M-------- Paradox. What he alone calls the global dimming phenomenon a.k.a. the aerosol masking effect - an actual scientific theory. He provides some oversimplified explanation of this theory in his video lectures. The explanation comes with an attack on anyone, including environmentalists and scientists working toward ending fossil fuel dominance and lowering pollution rates, in what appears to be an absurd attempt to educate. In several recent articles and a vlog, He even goes so far as to state that anyone calling for the reduction of pollution caused by industrial activities is “trying to destroy all life on earth".
In this video, confidently called “Everything You Ever Wanted to Know” this guy claims that if we cut emissions today by as little as 35% these particles will fall out of the sky resulting in an omnicidal 1°C rise in temperature in a matter of a few weeks, supposedly citing this study by Levy et al.
But actually this study says that this process is completely uncertain and would likely take until at least the end the 21st century. Additionally, the study is careful to state there are enormous unknowns "regarding the role of aerosols in climate [and] the actual magnitude of the aerosol effect, as discussed by Shine et al." Conversely, McPherson claims, in no uncertain terms, that this temperature rise would happen immediately. He also says that the effects of dimming already underway cannot be mitigated or reversed.
According to climate scientist Professor James Renwick from Victoria University's School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences “this is where this guy's grasp of the science seems shakiest. McPherson says cutting aerosol pollution to zero (as would happen when and if industrial society falls over) will unmask another 2.5°C of warming. This is a factor of ten too large, as the actual amount would be around 0.25°C by current best estimates (see figure 10.5).”
In short, this is not a paradox (video), even if it does represent a very real dilemma. It is true that our continued reluctance to reduce carbon emissions fast enough makes the two goals of eliminating air pollution and limiting global warming seem mutually exclusive. This means the real dilemma is, in effect, caused by our inertia and failure to act.
Finally, there is a level of absurdity to the suggestion that we as a society must keep polluting. Also the notion that we should shame or blame those who are trying to stop polluting is unfair and uncalled for now more than ever. Additionally, there is typically no mention or discussion of solutions in this "guy's"work. He preaches acceptance of death as if it were the only answer (essentially, something that we have to do anyway). There are strange suicide hotline references on every page of his blog and more on contemplating suicide all over his website. What does this have to do with climate science?
"The evidence that climate change is a serious problem that we must contend with now, is overwhelming on its own. There is no need to overstate the evidence, particularly when it feeds a paralyzing narrative of doom and hopelessness. - Michael Mann
Not a Paradox
Global dimming is a well-known scientific phenomenon. Climate scientist James Hansen, PhD and former Director of NASA Goddard is among the first to have established this theory. In a formidable program that aired on PBS titled Dimming the Sun, James Hansen estimates that the so called “global dimming" produced by these aerosol particles is cooling the planet by more than a degree Celsius (1.8°F). Hansen also raises the additional concern that if we cut back on pollution, global warming will only increase to a point of no return. However, no one at NASA has ever referred to this as a paradox, nor have they implied that this is a reason to keep burning fossil fuels.
Learn the solution to this dilemma at Debunked: Global Dimming Dilemma >> We Don't Have to Fear Clean Air. Don't Let the Deniers and Doomers Tell You Otherwise. We have the Technology - it's called a Tree!
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